The Great European Drone Episode of 2025
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Drones are a Reality as are Many Other Things, Making the Truth Hard to Find
Back in late 2024, drone activity over a New Jersey military base spilled over into reports involving drones over homes, which in turn blew up to make a flap where misidentifications and theories abounded. Be sure to read my critical examination of what likely happened over New Jersey and what it means for the future to understand where this post is going.
The Great Drone Episode of 2024
My own role in the Great Kabul Drone Flap of 2019, and my examination of New Jersey's drone episode.
Of note in the above post, I ended it with a post-script about Danish police reporting several nights of mass drone sightings. After I published the Substack post, news of drones over Denmark faded away. Mysterious, vaguely threatening drones became “so 2024.”
The Known Swarms
Then September 9 happened. About 20 multipurpose Russian military drones infiltrated Polish airspace. Some drones were shot down while others crashed, damaging one Polish home. Warsaw invoked NATO’s Article Four, and the rest of Europe became hyperaware of drones being an everyday threat.
In this period of tension, Denmark and Norway started reporting mysterious drones over critical infrastructure. On September 22, radar and visual sightings of reported drones forced the closure of both Copenhagen and Oslo’s airports. These drones weren’t quad-copters. Instead, witnesses described them as larger, fixed wing models. Then, night after night, more incidents occurred. By early October, multiple airports and military bases in Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, France. and Germany reported drone sightings. Anti-drone military hardware detected drone technology in several of these incidents.
Yet, There Was More
While the incidents of the 9th and 22nd has been well documented, there was additional drone activity throughout September. Romania suffered multiple Russian drone intrusions between the two dates, while a Russian drone crashed in Latvia. In smaller drone news, Polish authorities brought down a drone that was flying over the presidential palace and other government sites in Warsaw. Poland detained a Belarusian and Ukrainian citizen as the Poles believed the two were involved with the incident.
The drone incursions have continued. In November, the Moldovan government presented to the Russian ambassador a drone that fell on a Moldovan home.
In early December, the Irish government stated four large, military-style drones entered a no fly zone and circled Dublin International Airport. Some alleged that this may have been a possible assassination attempt attempt or other action against the visiting Ukrainian president.
Leaders Getting Involved
Unlike the New Jersey Drone Episode which had multiple competing theories, European leaders agreed these objects likely were Russian drones. Norway’s Defense Minister Tore Sandvik claimed the objects were surveillance drones. For his part, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Russia was likely behind the mysterious drone flights, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated Germany assumed Russia was behind the drones. In early October, France24 posted an article about European leaders’ efforts to build a “drone wall” to protect countries from Russian drones.
Searching for an Origin
The geography of the Oslo and Copenhagen sightings implied to many that the drones must have been launched from a nearby ship. Even the initial January reports had the drones flying out to sea before they disappeared. The other flight path, from Russia itself, would have been much more difficult to conduct covertly.
On September 28, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that “there is intelligence information that the Russians are using tankers to launch and control drones that they launch against European countries.” The president doubled down on this claim on October 7, when he stated Ukraine was working with European countries about the drone shadow fleet. It appeared other European partners believed these claims, as French commandos boarded what they thought was a secret drone carrier, but it turned out to be a Chinese-crewed vessel that had no drones.
So What’s in the Air?
If a majority of sightings were Russian, though, a launch point in the North Sea or Baltic Sea doesn’t work for interior incidents like those over Munich or Prague. This suggests some drones were land-launched. Countries have conducted searches around sighting locations to find operators or control stations. While no infrastructure supporting large drones has been found, one search resulted in Norwegian police detaining two Chinese nationals who were operating a drone near a civilian airport-NATO military base.
Russia Pushes Back and Other Theories
For his part, Russian President Putin dismissed claims of Russian drones infiltrating European airspace, claiming it was an effort to justify increasing European defense budgets. He went on to compare the drone episode to UFO flap hysteria.
Like New Jersey’s drone episode, there has been an increase in false identifications. Danish Defense Minister Troels Poulsen pulled back some claims of drones, saying they were going to be referred to as “air observations.” Danish press discovered the government had debunked some of the prominent cases, though the Danish Ministry of Defense clarified some objects were indeed drones. Cited misidentified objects have included planes, stars, and satellites. This has fueled debunkers who were popular during the backlash to the New Jersey drone episode.
Meanwhile, though some rare voices were pushing this as part of a demonic deception, super top secret advanced technology, or shapeshifting alien craft, the far out theories for the European Drone Episode have been rare. This is different from the New Jersey episode where there were many alternative theories.
So What’s in the Air and What’s Next
Much like New Jersey’s Drone Episode, Europe is going through the next steps of the new normal. We know Russia has used drones over the European Union, and countries such as China use drones to survey American military bases. While the exact nature of the most prominent Oslo and other drones remain unknown, there is enough belief among European leaders to launch raids on shipping and blame Russia. I suspect there is some intelligence out there that helps shore up the blame Russia case.
False identifications will cause some to dismiss this episode. However, unlike in New Jersey, the mass hysteria is less, while the genuine threat of drones from Russia is an open fact. These drones were enough to cause air traffic control to shut down airports, something that didn’t happen in New Jersey. Blaming misidentified aircraft for the initial Denmark and Norway sightings doesn’t flow.
I suspect governments and others will increasingly use larger and larger drones to conduct reconnaissance and harassment campaigns around the world. These drones will be seen, and reporting will be encouraged as it serves as an open source intelligence detection network. Welcome to the new normal.
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Until Next Time
We’re shaking up the schedule. Next time, we will take a critical look at the conspiracy theory Operation Blue Beam and also give pointers on how to critically think when encountering a conspiracy theory.
As always, please leave a comment with any questions, reviews, thoughts, whatever about Fallen, Risen, Dormition, An Odd Pilgrimage, The Savannah Paranormal Detective Agency or whatever else I have discussed. I promise to reply!
Brillaint comparison between the two drone episodes. The shift from public hysteria in New Jersey to more measured European responses backed by actual intelligence is kinda telling about how threat perception changes when goverments have real skin in the game. The challenge is that with so much legitimate drone activity mixed with misidentifications, we're basically creating a perfect environment where adversaries can operate openly, knowing every detection gets lost in the noise.
For some reason I liked things better when they weren’t hiding things in plain sight. They’ve taken all the fun and mystery out of conspiracy theories these days!