The Great Drone Episode of 2024
Critical Thinking About the Things in the Sky
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A Serious Look at What is in the Air
The Great Kabul Drone Flap
One long distant August ago, there was a drone flap on a military base in Kabul. A contractor took photos of what he claimed were drones above his barracks. He stated the drones were coming at 0100 (1 A.M.) for the last few nights. I dismissed it as civilian aircraft but promised to join him the next night as he waited for the “drones” to return.
That night, I was pointing out the flight path of civilian planes from South Asia to Russia when we both saw a brighter light cross the sky and stop. Another light joined it, and together, both lights started flying in a grid pattern over the base and several other nearby installations including Afghan government buildings and foreign embassies.
My own poor quality video of the two probable drones flying above us. The large light is the moon.
I immediately reported it to the National Guard unit responsible for force protection. Within 24 hours, the Coalition forces, Afghan military, and multiple embassies were involved. For several days, dozens of reports came in, and everyone was obsessed with the drone sightings. Then, it became a joke, and in a few more days, it was forgotten.
The event became nothing more than a “remember that time” story. Yet, something, almost certainly drones based on altitude, maneuvers, and level of sound, was flying above key military, diplomatic, and Afghan government sites, possibly collecting information on said sites.
The initial reports, poor quality video, hype, panic, and jokes happened again in New Jersey and the American Northeast. Remembering my time in Kabul, I started thinking and investigating the sightings.
The Great New Jersey Drone Flap/Panic/Episode
According to NJ.com, military officials confirmed a November 13 sighting of an “unauthorized drone” near Picatinny Arsenal in Morris County. This is the earliest drone sighting that I can confirm. The Picatinny Arsenal drone incident predates the Wall Street Journal’s claim that the episode began “when law-enforcement officers in northern New Jersey began seeing several drones in the sky” on November 18. “Live Storm Chasers, a local weather-tracking group with 1.3 million Facebook followers, posted that ‘at least five, unknown, large drones have been flying unauthorized for over 2 hours.’” The disconnect on dates is important, as I will get to later.
Unauthorized drones flying over military installations are nothing new, likely being a combination of regular people having fun and foreign intelligence operations. Langley Airforce Base has been the site of repeated drone incursions that have military officials concerned.
Yet, unlike other cases that were either one-offs or limited to a particular location, claims of New Jersey drone sightings exploded. The first reports to reach social and traditional media were on November 18, when there was a mass sighting involving five objects and a helicopter in pursuit. Local officials tried downplaying it, but this was met with additional reports. Mayors and state officials became involved in sharing stories about how objects, called drones, hovered above houses and swarmed over the coast. Things then escalated to a federal level with President-elect Donald Trump stating the current administration knew what the drones were. He later said he was staying away from his New Jersey golf course because of sightings near it.
During this time, things got wild. On the one hand, there were dire claims that the drones were from an Iranian mothership off the East Coast, that the drones were the government looking for a missing nuclear bomb, or that the government had no clue what they were. On the other hand, there were people who hadn’t gazed at the night sky in years, declaring that commercial airplanes in flight paths were drones. Even planes coming in to land in New York were called drones. Elsewhere, Christian End Timers stated the sightings may be part of a demonic plot to discredit Christianity.
The competing and far out claims lead in turn to a wave of mockery
.By late December, the mass panic had ended in the press, though reports of drones continued in local media, with local politicians still demanding answers. In late December, for example, a New Jersey mayor shared a story about how a hobbyist tried to use his drone to follow an unknown drone, only for that drone to be hijacked.
What Does the Government Say?
The joint Department of Homeland Security, Federal Bureau of Investigations, Federal Aviation Authority, and Department of Defense statement on the matter stated "we assess that the sightings to date include a combination of lawful commercial drones, hobbyist drones, and law enforcement drones, as well as manned fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, and stars mistakenly reported as drones.” Yet, that same statement acknowledged unknown drones were flying over military bases. A spokesman for the Joint Chief of Staff elaborated on those sightings saying “we have no intelligence or observations that would indicate that they were aligned with a foreign actor or that they had malicious intent. But ... we don't know. We have not been able to locate or identify the operators or the points of origin."
Meanwhile, according to the New York Post in late December, the “FBI said it has investigated approximately 5,000 of the various reports it received from the public, with about 100 deemed credible [unexplained drone reports].”
Weighing Various Theories (In Alphabetical Order)
Aliens: No evidence to support this hypothesis. In fact, the use of the term “drone” and the lack of “otherworldly” flight characteristics prevented most UFO/UAP theories from gaining too much traction.
China (Futuristic Drones): Unlikely given the sole claim. Las Vegas Cybertruck Trump Hotel bomber Matthew Livelsberge claimed that the New Jersey Drones were Chinese "gravitic propulsion systems powered aircraft." While he was working on drone issues and had clearances, he also was unstable enough to make a car bomb. No other normal or conspiracy theories talk about Chinese submarines operating off the East Coast. Also, no one claims to have gravity control propulsion capabilities.
Demons: No evidence to support this hypothesis. So far, no one has claimed the objects have an aversion to the holy, such as staying away from churches or being repelled by sacramentals or prayers.
Espionage Drones: Probable explanation for some cases over military bases. China being the most likely culprit while Russia, Cuba, and other intelligence agency being possible players. Having the drone incident on 13 November being included is important because it gives a link between the drones and a probable intelligence collection activities against a military base. Normal drones have geofencing that prevent them from flying over military bases, but whoever is flying them over military bases has a modified system that allows for that.
Everyday Drones (Hobbyist, Law Enforcement, Private Industry): Likely explains some sightings. There are a lot of drones flying in the air. Also, it is believable that some people would fly drones during the height of the episode to troll others.
Iran: This theory died a quick death. There was no follow-up, and no one else provided leaks or further claims supporting an Iranian mothership.
Government Testing: Unlikely if white or gray operations. Much has been made about the 2023 drone testing corridor from Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst in New Jersey to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. However, the joint base is in the southern half of the state near Philadelphia, while the first cases in Morris County and the surrounding area were in the far northern part of the state. Also, if it were normal government testing, the government could would have admitted that and listed evidence to stop the panic.
Government Testing (Covert): Unknown. The government does classified things all the time. In the past, it used belief in UFOs as a cover for classified aircraft. However, we lack evidence on covert operations to give the theory any weight.
Nuclear Sniffing Drones: Unlikely. The initial proposal of nuclear sniffing drones claimed Soviet-era nuclear weapons were missing from Ukraine. These nukes were supposedly being used by terrorists in a plot against New York City. The lynchpin ground of that claim was alleged missing Ukrainian nuclear weapons. There is no evidence that nuclear weapons have ever gone missing in Ukraine.
Planes: Very likely explanation for many sightings during the peak of the episode. Some of seen objects were clearly planes, and the use of FlightRadar24 showed people were reporting commercial flights as drones. Some photos of “drones” were flat out hilarious, such as the case of this misidentified but clearly a helicopter.
So What Does That Leave Us With?
Commercial drones, hobbyist drones, planes, and drone espionage very likely explain most cases of what was and is being seen. The scary thing is that drone incursions happen all the time throughout the country. Military bases and borders are being probed by drones everyday despite geofencing present in everyday civilian drones. Some of these almost certainly are civilians just having fun, but foreign spies and criminal organizations like cartels also use drones over these locations. The drone panic in part just had people see what is the new American normal.
Post-script: In early January, Danish police reported several nights of mass drone sightings. These drones weren’t flying in plane flight paths and flew away from Denmark towards the Baltic Sea. The nearness of Russia and the battlespace for the Ukraine War obviously have many on edge. Also in early January, governors of Wyoming, Virginia, and Louisiana claimed about drone incursions over sensitive infrastructure such as nuclear reactors. President-elect Trump promised a report within a day of his new term about the drones. It will be interesting to see if my “new normal” is close to what is revealed.
Should I Keep Posting Dormition Chapters or Just Publish it as a Complete Book?
The feedback from Dormition chapters is good but readership numbers are minimal. So what should I do? (I’ll happily give readers a complete copy for free if you email or comment below)
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Next time the post will depend if a podcast episode posts elsewhere. So either way, it’ll be a surprise!
As always, please leave a comment with any questions, reviews, thoughts, whatever about Fallen, Risen, Dormition, An Odd Pilgrimage, The Savannah Paranormal Detective Agency or whatever else I have discussed. I promise to reply!
I will read the book... entirely.
It's interesting see how the people can be "infected" by paranoia, that lead to identify an helicopter as a drone, they are so different.