Structured Thinking to Defeat Bad Thinking
With the Disclosure flop, there has been chatter about how the press misled people, how things were hyped up, and general disinformation in the news. Much of the social panic of the episode was because of a lack of critical thinking. Sadly, we live in a world where many do not have analysis skills fostered or taught. There is hope, though, as military, intelligence, and business analysts have been taught a unique way to think. Now, I will share with you a layman’s guide to this critical thinking method that will help you judge claims in your lives.
First, let’s take a science fiction mind wash and enjoy this scene from Star Trek: The Next Generation. In the episode The Wounded, Captain Benjamin Maxwell has been launching raids against the Cardassians, an alien race the Federation had recently concluded a peace treaty with. Maxwell’s actions risk a new war that the Federation and its military, Starfleet, aren’t ready for. Maxwell is convinced the Cardassians are preparing for a new war, while Captain Picard of the USS Enterprise is unsure if these claims are valid while believing the other captain has overstepped his authority. Notice Picard’s use of questions and Maxwell’s inability to answer them.
Was Maxwell right? Possibly, the Cardassians were behaving in a way the Federation considered suspicious. However, one of the theme of this episode is how easy it is to misread the other side and thus project the worst on different groups. According to the show’s canon, the Cardassians did not launch a new war. In the follow on series Deep Space Nine, the Cardassians and the Federation had a shaky partnership that was peaceful despite some small scale skirmishing between partisans in contested space. It wasn’t until there was a coup on Cardassia and its new leader allied with the Dominion that a new war broke out.
Maxwell felt he “knew” what was going on. Picard’s use of critical thinking questions showed what he “knew” were really hunches.
First, the Deprogramming
“Being absolutely right and being spectacularly wrong feel exactly the same.” -Scott Adams, Loserthink
Most people do not think critically. Much of the average person’s thinking is a process that combines thoughts with reinforced biases and emotions. As we see on social media, people tend to seek out new information that fits into their already established worldview. Emotional decision making is prominent, with people tipping their thought process using terms like “feel” instead of “think.”
To defeat this shallow thinking, first, you have to reset the mental map. To do that, we can draw from the United States Intelligence Community, the maker of the Dilbert cartoon Scott Adams, and my own personal critical thinking maxims.
Steps to Think By
In 2015, the American Director of National Intelligence released Intelligence Community Directive 203 (PDF). ICD 203 set the critical thinking “standards that govern the production and evaluation of analytic products; articulates the responsibility of intelligence analysts to strive for excellence, integrity, and rigor in their analytic thinking and work practices.” The military, other elements of federal and state agencies, and private corporations have since adopted these rules to make logical assessments and choices.
As I’m not - and you are likely not - James Bond trying to assess a possible nuclear attack or an Amazon employee predicting future markets, I have created a simplified guide to think like an analyst, especially with sci-fi-related claims.
Objective Thinking
Analysts must perform their functions with objectivity and with awareness of their own assumptions and reasoning. -ICD 203
First off, specific claims influence one’s thinking. If I tell you aliens abducted me, your mind anchors onto whether or not I was abducted by an extraterrestrial. Same thing if someone tells you MK Ultra is an active program and controls politicians. You will view every piece of evidence as either confirming or denying that claim, with every confirmation having an oversized impact. Instead, reframe things into an open ended question. Asking “What happened to me last night?” or “What explains politicians’ behavior on X subject?” or “What occurred at Roswell?” will help you approach any subject with an open mind not biased by a claim.
Sourcing
How do you know what you know? -Abbott’s First Maxim of Critical Thinking
Analytic products should identify underlying sources and methodologies upon which judgments are based, and use source descriptors... -ICD 203
There is a war going on for your mind. People and organizations tell you things to influence your thinking and decision making. - Abbott’s Third Maxim of Critical Thinking
Think about the various science fiction-like claims out there, such as aliens being in the basement of Area 51, psychic children abducted for the Montauk Project, or the nightmarish aftereffects of the Philadelphia Experiment. How do you know about them? You weren’t there. Someone told you about them. How would they know? Eventually, you should make a chain of custody linking the claim you heard to the original source. The further a source is from its point of origin, the higher the likelihood of the “telephone game” changing what was actually said. Remember, though, even original sources can be compromised as they may have an agenda. How would they know? What do they have to gain by stating the claim? You should evaluate a source on a range of reliability instead of thinking of a source as true or false.
Hypotheses Generation and Analysis of Alternatives
Always ask yourself if the opposite of your theory could be true. Doing so keeps you humble and less susceptible to bias until you get to the truth of the situation… If you have a strong opinion about a proposed plan but you have not compared it to the next best alternative, you are not part of a rational conversation. -Scott Adams, Loserthink
Incorporates analysis of alternatives: Analysis of alternatives is the systematic evaluation of differing hypotheses to explain events or phenomena, explore near-term outcomes, and imagine possible futures to mitigate surprise and risk. Analytic products should identify and assess plausible alternative hypotheses. -ICD 203
Now that you have evidence and are thinking objectively, lay out all the data. Brainstorm plausible explanations, try weeding them out so you have mutually exclusive hypotheses. Once you have three to five possibilities, make a chart and see what evidence backs what hypothesis. For example, how does Roswell’s wreckage having thin wood and duct tape relate to it being a balloon, an aircraft, or a spacecraft? The one that gets the most votes best fits your body of evidence while requiring the fewest unsupported assumptions. That is your main hypothesis while the runner up is your primary alternative. Figure out what you need to see to change your mind in case you are wrong and your alternative is correct.
Gaps
What signs would you need to see in order to know you were wrong? How many of those signs do you see now? -Abbott’s Second (Modified) Maxim of Critical Thinking
Analytic elements should identify and address critical information gaps and work with collection activities and data providers to develop access and collection strategies. - ICD 203
Wouldn’t it be great if someone had a clear photograph of a UFO? Or maybe Bigfoot on a trail cam? Maybe the raw data from HAARP activity? What about a recorded conversation of two government officials saying something vague about a “big event” near where people claimed to see a UFO? Or, what about proof your source is wrong or even lying to you?
Having more evidence can help lead one to an assessment. We should always be on the lookout for more evidence. Come up with a list of what you would need to see to be more sure of your main hypothesis. These are your gaps. Remember them because if you see a gap filled, you can either be more sure of your assessment or realize you were wrong.
Likelihood and Confidence
Being absolutely right and being spectacularly wrong feel exactly the same. -Scott Adams, Loserthink (I like this quote so much I’m using it twice)
Properly expresses and explains uncertainties associated with major analytic judgments: Analytic products should indicate and explain the basis for the uncertainties associated with major analytic judgments, specifically the likelihood of occurrence of an event or development, and the analyst’s confidence in the basis for this judgment. -ICD 203
Remember, your assessment isn’t you saying “X happened” or “Y will happen.” Instead, it is you declaring “Based on the evidence and my thinking, Z may have/likely/very likely happened/is true/will happen.” With what you know, is your assessment a toss up, fairly solid, or very solid? That is your likelihood. But there is also confidence. Confidence is recognizing the limitations of your sources. Is the case rock solid, or do you have only two sources pointing you to a conclusion? Or do you have a weak confidence level because all your evidence is weak? The more sources of higher quality, the more confident you can be. Finally, always be open to new information, weighing it and factoring it in if necessary.
So You Think Critically Now
Applying this will take time, but you will begin to realize you are less likely to fully believe or dismiss things. You will view things in likelihoods, setting limits on what to obtain and put aside, but always on the lookout for information that can be evaluated for relevance and reliability. Good luck!
Buy My Books
Looking for psychological military science fiction? Read about the adventure of veteran Brendan Murphy as he tries to keep peace between Earth and a mysterious alien race known as the Sabia. Read the Fallen series today! Please remember to leave a review once you are done. Reviews are the lifeblood of independent creators, and using these links helps me too via the affiliate program!
And I am editing the fourth book presently.
Or check out my humorous Savannah Paranormal Detective Agency short stories.
Other Independent Book Promotions
Flight of the Absolution by DF Pieper - Free Book
Torst Janssen has been hiding from the law on a distant planet for two decades. When he finds out his health is failing and he only has a short time to live, he realizes he needs to right his old wrongs and recover the mysterious treasure he stole all those years ago.
The Descendants and The Calling by Destiny Hawkins - Free Book and Sequel Sample
Monroe Academy was built to separate the weak from the strong.
Pass the biyearly leveling and be released into society upon graduation.
Fail to be promoted and be placed into servitude.
Branded as the academy null, these were the laws that applied to all but Rayah Bardeau. The Lighter with no light.
After Rayah’s mother made a devastating sacrifice, Rayah was given six years to make her required level. Now, with only a few months left to prove herself, she was still the same level she’s been since she was ten years old.
A level one.
Overwhelmed by the upcoming test, consumed by guilt, and wary of academy bullies, Rayah could only dream of escaping her world.
…And one night, her dream had come true…
Only, when Rayah reawakened in her dorm, she couldn’t distinguish if she had only dreamed of the defect from the wild-lands, or if she had somehow used her Lighter Form to jump there, and everything she experienced was real.
But only the elite ― the most powerful of Lighters ― could manifest their Lighter Forms. Right?
And what was the dark energy that lurked just beneath the surface? Would Rayah be able to soon claim the title of a lighter, or would she discover that she was something else entirely?
Unit Next Time
Next time, I will take a look at the Book of Enoch aka the First Book of Enoch aka the Scroll of Enoch and UFO culture’s relationship to it.
As always, please leave a comment with any questions, reviews, thoughts, whatever about Fallen, Risen, Dormition, An Odd Pilgrimage, The Savannah Paranormal Detective Agency or whatever else I have discussed. I promise to reply!